About the time of player substitution
In terms of substitution timing distribution, this study reveals a notable scarcity of substitutions during the first half, with the majority occurring at halftime and in the second half. This observation aligns with earlier findings [11, 15, 16, 32].
During the FIFA World Cup knockout stages, even fewer substitutions occur in the first half compared to the group stages. This indicates that coaches delay substitutions in these winner-takes-all matches where each substitution opportunity is precious. This trend of delaying substitutions has become increasingly prominent over the years.
Regarding specific time intervals for substitutions, it is important to note that different FIFA World Cups, match status, and match stages may yield varied results. Cultural factors such as history, traditions and values of different countries can also influence a team’s game strategy, philosophy and playing style [33, 34]. Across six FIFA World Cups, the time interval with the highest number of substitutions showed variability during the group stage. In 2002, the 76–80 min range saw the most substitutions, closely followed by the 66–70 min range. In 2006, the peak of substitutions occurred in the 66–70 min range, followed by the 71–75 min range. In 2010, the 66–70 min range was the most active for substitutions, followed by the 76–80 min range. In 2014, the 76–80 min range witnessed the highest number of substitutions, followed by the 71–75 min range. In 2018, the 71–75 min range was the busiest for substitutions, followed by the 66–70 min range. In 2022, the 71–75 min range had the most substitutions, followed by the 76–80 min range. When expanding the time intervals to 15 min, during the group stage of all six FIFA World Cups, the peak for substitutions consistently falls between the 66–80 min mark.
In the knockout stages, the time interval with the most substitutions was the 76–80 min in 2002 and the 66–70 min in 2014. For 2006, 2010, 2018, and 2022, the most active time range for substitutions was the 71–75 min. According to a technical analysis article from the FIFA Training Centre, the 2022 FIFA World Cup featured a higher percentage of substitutions between the 45–70 min mark during the knockout stages compared to 2018 [30]. However, among the six FIFA World Cups, the year with the highest proportion of substitutions in this time range was 2006.
Turning to player substitutions during extra time in the knockout stages, the lowest proportion was observed in 2002. This was likely due to the Golden Goal rule, which often resulted in shorter extra periods. In such cases, coaches aimed to utilize all three substitutions before extra time. However, after the abolition of the Golden Goal rule, the number of player substitutions during extra time did not strongly correlate with the number of matches going into extra time.
In 2006, there were six matches in extra time, with substitutions accounting for nearly 10% of knockout stage substitutions. In 2010, with only four extra time matches, the proportion of substitutions stood at approximately 8%. The situation changed in 2014, with eight extra time matches and substitutions making up slightly over 18%. In 2018 and 2022, each featuring five extra time matches, the proportion of substitutions reached 18% and 16%, respectively. This evolving trend in the proportion of substitutions during extra time also supports the notion that coaches have increasingly delayed substitutions over time.
About the time of team substitution
This study on player substitution timing in the last six FIFA World Cups aligns with prior research findings. Notably, teams tend to substitute players earlier when they are losing compared to when they are drawing or winning [17]. Conversely, substitutions are typically delayed when a team holds a winning position [18].
Regarding specific timings, the average time for substitutions during the group stage in each FIFA World Cup tends to be earlier than corresponding substitutions in the knockout stage. This pattern mirrors the distribution of player substitution timings. Particularly noteworthy is the tendency for substitutions to occur later in level-score games, observed prominently in several instances: the third substitution in the group stage and knockout stage of the 2002 FIFA World Cup; the second and third substitutions in the knockout stage of the 2006 FIFA World Cup; the third substitution in the knockout stage of the 2010 FIFA World Cup; the second and third substitutions in the knockout stage of the 2014 FIFA World Cup; and the first to fourth substitutions in the knockout stage of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. This trend suggests that coaches may strategically delay substitutions to maintain field balance in knockout-stage matches with tied scores. They may wait until opposing players’ stamina diminishes before introducing substitutes with superior running abilities, aiming to create more goal-scoring opportunities.
Multiple studies consistently demonstrate that substitutes cover more distance and engage in higher-intensity running after entering the field [8, 15, 16, 26, 27]. Additionally, substitutes show enhanced performance in technical aspects such as ball control, passing, shooting, and defending [35]. Analysis of player running data from the 2022 Qatar FIFA World Cup supports this, showing that substitutes cover more distance at higher intensities per minute [36]. Moreover, research indicates that substitutions made when scores are tied can significantly impact match outcomes [37]. These findings provide robust evidence supporting the strategic use of substitutions in football matches.
About team substitution strategy
This study represents the first attempt to quantify team substitutions based on actual substitution opportunities used by teams, addressing a significant limitation in previous research that focused on individual player perspectives. The challenge arose because previous methods couldn’t distinguish the order of substitutions when teams replaced multiple players simultaneously in a single opportunity.
During the era of three substitutions, such issues were rare. Across the five FIFA World Cups from 2002 to 2018, fewer than 6% of substitutions involved replacing two players simultaneously. However, with the introduction of five substitutions, data solely from the 2022 FIFA World Cup reveals that nearly 40% of substitutions involved simultaneously substituting two or three players. Defining substitutions solely from the perspective of individual players under these circumstances makes it difficult to accurately record the order of substitutions, potentially compromising calculations of the average time between substitutions.
Previous studies, such as one analyzing data from the Big Five leagues and the UEFA Champions League, also relied on individual player substitution times for their analysis. They calculated average substitution times for the 2020/2021 season, considering both five substitutions in leagues like the Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A, and Ligue 1, and 5 + 1 substitutions in the UEFA Champions League [28]. The accuracy of these times may require further validation.
This study’s findings align with previous research on team substitution strategies. For example, regarding substitution types, neutral substitutions are frequently observed [8, 18, 31], while offensive substitutions tend to outnumber defensive substitutions overall [18]. In FIFA World Cup scenarios, defensive substitutions are more prevalent when a team is winning. Conversely, when a team is drawing, offensive substitutions are more common than defensive ones. In situations where a team is losing, offensive substitutions also outnumber defensive substitutions.
In addition, a team’s substitution strategy may be influenced by the continent where the team is based. Research has shown that players from South America and Africa are more prone to committing errors compared to players from Europe, Asia, and North America. South American players tend to commit more fouls and consequently receive more yellow and red cards [38]. It is often observed in matches that when a key player in the team receives a yellow or red card, the coach tends to make quick decisions to make a substitution.
Regarding the number of substitutions made by teams in each substitution opportunity, as the allowed number of substitutions increased from three to five, the proportion of single-player substitutions in each FIFA World Cup decreased dramatically. In the five FIFA World Cups from 2002 to 2018, the maximum number of players substituted in a single opportunity was two, and this approach was more frequently employed in the group stage than in the knockout stage.
Furthermore, when a team was losing, coaches were more likely to substitute two players simultaneously. In the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the frequency of substituting two players in a single opportunity was similar across the three different match status. However, there were significant differences between the group stage and the knockout stage. In the group stage, the most frequent scenario for substituting two players at once was during a tied match. Conversely, in the knockout stage, the most frequent scenarios were when the team was winning or losing. Substituting three players in a single opportunity was more common in the group stage, whereas such extensive substitutions were rare during the knockout stage. This suggests that coaches tend to be more cautious and conservative in their substitution strategies during the knockout stage compared to the group stage.
About factors affecting the time of team substitution
This study found that the factors influencing team substitution times varied based on the order of the substitutions.
Match status is the most influential factor for the first three TTS. For the fourth and fifth TTS, match status is not significant, possibly due to the limited amount of data, with only a few dozen entries from the 2022 FIFA World Cup available for analysis.
The ranking gap significantly affects the first and second TTS, with higher-ranked teams making substitutions earlier. There may be several reasons for this. Firstly, the FIFA World Ranking calculation method is influenced by past performance and may not accurately reflect the team’s current strength during the FIFA World Cup. Secondly, it is very common for the weaker team to beat the stronger team in FIFA World Cup, meaning the ranking gap between teams may not directly translate to on-field performance. Therefore, further research is needed to clarify the relationship between team ranking gap and substitution timing.
The game round is only related to the second TTS, though there is also a notable relationship with the third and fourth TTS during the group stage. This reflects a trend where teams become increasingly cautious with their substitutions as the FIFA World Cup progresses.
The presence of extra time significantly impacts the second and third TTS. In knockout stages, teams delay their substitutions if they anticipate a draw in regular time. Conversely, they may use substitutions earlier to prepare for extra time. The fourth TTS is significantly related only to the presence of extra time, likely due to the new substitution rules introduced in the knockout stage of the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
Substitution rules significantly affect only the third TTS. Under the three-substitution rule, the third substitution is the last, leading teams to use it cautiously, resulting in a later TTS. In contrast, under the four-substitution rule, teams may use the third substitution earlier, considering the additional substitution allowed in extra time.
Limitation
While the rule allowing five substitutions in football matches has been in place for nearly three years, it is important to acknowledge that team substitution strategies may vary across different periods, countries, leagues, competition levels, and various stages within the same competition.
This study focused solely on the FIFA World Cup, limiting the generalizability of findings to other football competitions. Additionally, this study did not consider the influence of external factors such as climatic differences between continents, stadium geography, weather conditions during the game, player injuries, players’ age, or team tactics on substitutions. The 2022 Qatar FIFA World Cup was the first ever held in the northern hemisphere during the winter months, and the impact of seasonal factors on substitutions has not been analyzed.
Therefore, broader research is needed to explore how the increased number of substitutions affects the timing and strategies employed by teams. This study does not investigate the potential influence of substitution patterns on match results. As the number of substitutions increases, examining how substitutions impact a team’s overall performance becomes increasingly valuable.
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